The humid air in the cafe clung to my skin as I watched the replay on the screen above the counter. It was that moment from Game 2—Adrian Nocum missing a crucial free throw, the collective gasp from the Rain or Shine crowd, the way his shoulders slumped just for a second before he straightened up. I’ve been watching PBA for fifteen years, and let me tell you, that kind of moment either breaks a player or forges them. Nocum, to his credit, was quoted saying he’s taking a positive mindset moving forward. That’s the thing about this league; it’s not just about physical skill, it’s a brutal mental game. And it’s that very mental fortitude, or lack thereof, that will absolutely decide the burning question on every fan’s mind right now: Will TNT maintain dominance or will Meralco pull off upset in PBA matchup?
I remember my own days playing for my university team, nothing as grand as the PBA Philippine Cup semifinals, of course, but the principle is the same. We lost a championship game by a single point because our star player, much like Nocum, let the pressure get to him in the final seconds. He never really recovered his form after that. It changes you. Watching TNT, I see a team that has already been through that fire. They have the experience, the cool-headed veterans who’ve been in dozens of these high-stakes games. Their ball movement is a thing of beauty, a well-oiled machine that seems to know exactly where everyone is without looking. I’d estimate their assist-to-turnover ratio in the last five games must be somewhere around a stellar 2.1, a number that speaks to their disciplined, almost surgical, approach to the game. They don’t just play; they execute a plan.
On the other side, you have Meralco. And here’s where I’ll show my bias—I have a soft spot for the underdog. There’s a raw, chaotic energy to their play that I find utterly compelling. They don’t have the same polished system as TNT, but what they lack in finesse, they make up for with pure, unadulterated hustle. I saw one of their players, I think it was Allein Maliksi, dive for a loose ball in the fourth quarter when they were already down by 12. He skidded across the floor, got up with a scraped elbow, and immediately got back on defense. That’s the kind of heart that can’t be coached. It’s infectious. If TNT is a precision scalpel, Meralco is a sledgehammer. And sometimes, a sledgehammer is all you need to break a seemingly unbreakable object.
Thinking back to that Rain or Shine game, Nocum’s positive mindset is the key for any team facing a giant. Meralco is in a similar position. They’re not supposed to win this. The pressure is all on TNT, the defending champions, the team with the 68% win rate over the last two conferences. Everyone expects them to just roll over Meralco. But that’s the beautiful, and frankly, terrifying thing about sports—expectations mean nothing once the ball is tipped. Meralco’s coach, I believe, needs to get into the players' heads and make them believe they have nothing to lose. They need to play with that reckless abandon, that joy I see in them when they’re causing turnovers and converting them into fast-break points. I’d wager they’ve forced an average of 18 turnovers a game in the playoffs, a stat that could be a giant-killer if they can sustain it.
My gut feeling, and it’s just a feeling from years of watching these patterns unfold, is that this series is going to be much tighter than the experts are predicting. TNT’s dominance isn’t a myth; it’s built on a foundation of talent and system. But systems can be disrupted. Legends can be toppled. I’m looking at Meralco’s point guard, Chris Newsome. The man has ice in his veins. If he can control the tempo, slow the game down to a grind, and exploit TNT’s occasional, almost arrogant, lapses on perimeter defense, then we have a real fight on our hands. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if this goes to a full seven games, with each one being decided by less than five points. The narrative of "Will TNT maintain dominance or will Meralco pull off upset in PBA matchup" isn’t just a headline; it’s the central drama of this semifinal. So, while my logical brain says TNT in six, my heart, the one that still remembers the thrill of an unexpected victory, is whispering a different story. Don’t be shocked if that sledgehammer finds its mark.